A Raila 2022 run will bleach out his rumoured ‘enigma status’
By Nicholas Olambo
Don’t tell me no one knows if Baba is going to run not or that if he is going to run in 2022 then people will decide. People never decide for a dictator, Baba has decided and he’s going to run. There are many reasons to back his dictatorship but am not good with anecdotes so tales of the ‘Men in Black’ won’t feature here. He is going to run in 2022 and the results won’t change for self-proclaimed best or most rugged opposition leader. He will emerge the opposition leader.
His party (ODM) still has the appetite to taste the flavor of blind decisions they always make. I have heard of loose talks from sycophants who believe that Raila Odinga is the most decorated politician in Africa after the late Nelson Mandela. Hell no, but I do recognize that Raila has been behind some of the most monumental strides in Kenyan politics and expansion of democratic space but his too much love for politics and money have watered down his resume, it’s in tatters.
Running for presidency in any election and losing is one business or temptation the old man can’t avoid in pretense of being a democrat. William Ruto appears more prepared and scheming to clinch the seat like a real Kenyan politician. Raila is no longer with tricks up his sleeves, will be beaten in 2022 and as always he will expose his redundancy with power sharing or referendum talks. Referendum card worked in 2005 to weaken Kibaki but will add no value against Ruto. In fact, Ruto can embarrass him by sponsoring bright chaps like Dr Ekuro Aukot and his ‘punguza mzigo’ push. Those are viable ideas against creation of ceremonial presidency or premier positions to please retirees and dynasties.
He will run for presidency as a ploy to seek a platform and negotiate for funny power sharing deals like he did with former president Mwai Kibaki or through the ‘Handshake’ with President Uhuru Kenyatta. Without clear understanding of the trappings of power he gets so hyped and behaves like a house girl throughout the deal and fails to prepare for elections ahead. In today’s arrangement, he will carry the blame when Uhuru will carry legacy home. Uhuru will be leaving behind a more united and developed country than he took it from Kibaki.
At 76years what freshness or new ideas will Raila be presenting to Kenyans? He could be a retired president by now but for his paper appetite he traded his chance. He was convinced to sell his win to Kibaki and since then he became a businessman raking in profits and throwing off poison to the people. As much as it is his democratic right to run, I think it’s about time he learnt to play in a higher league. May be he could come close to Mandela. Look at Obasanjo, Kenneth Kaunda and with Zuma’s situation right now I think Thabo Mbeki deserves big guys respect too. These guys play in a league that decorates them almost like Mandela. Raila is not doing it even with his new job.
How is he planning to win if he is no longer making inroads into his opponents’ zones. He has been studied and understood, his opponents poaching his peers and foot soldiers is not news anymore. If it’s not Gideon Munga’aro, Mwashetani or Mvurya leaving the party then it’s Aisha Jumwa or western colleagues dining in Surgoi. Ojaamong is now on the way to team tanga tanga.
DP, Dr William Ruto will be very happy to meet and beat Raila in the ballot. It’s the best and recommended place and if anything many have come and beat Baba, why not him? Baba is not assembling a serious team, he is either sitting or just walking behind wishes and not working for them. He is in conference misleading his sycophants to believe that every government move is either his effort or efforts ‘to finish Ruto’. Very sad. He thinks Uhuru will endorse him and that he will inherit central Kenya vote bloc, what a midday dream!
Central is a cunning a bloc that is always considering their own first which is a thing in Kenyan politics. They have tasted power; they will always want to keep it or stay close to it. All those who have backed Raila candidacy have stayed away from ‘power’. They can choose to have their own and throw their vote to waste than gambling with people like Odinga or it can be scrumbled and Ruto will have the huge chunk. He does their kind of businesses, he is more promising than Odinga who will be told to retire with Uhuru or they may just back Ruto for having backed their son in 2002, 2013 and 2017.
The game is just not for Baba to win, his age is one reason, he can’t keep a united team is another, some say he is a general who spent all his bullets and it’s just time for Moi’s protégés to shine. He is not lucky the stars have aligned and two or three presidents who will come after Uhuru will still be Moi’s protégés. He lost it all when he traded his 2007 win, he then transitioned into a shell losing key foot soldier and making desperate and last minute friendships. Look at him and Kalonzo.
How is he ever preparing since he lost Ruto after 2007? He has lost Nairobi governorship to jubilee, kajiado is gone just like Kwale for poor strategies. Zoning in terms of regions and party strength should be a serious for NASA strategy but their misplaced ego never allowed them to employ it. He is on a serious diminishing trend. His name is no longer striking fears, enigma stories must have been fables or will be completely bleached out in 2022. Does he have a team since the death of NASA? Not really and the few unsure friends he is keeping can’t galvanize enough to dare his opponents. That’s not a good thing in politics, this is a game of numbers.
A lot of things are pissing him whenever he thinks of his slim or no chances of being the next head of state. I know he curses of them after shots of scotch. Theatrics like referendum and dreams of another nullification are off the cards. James Orengo is a good lawyer, he must be reminding him that weather doesn’t change courts but climate of a given time can. That’s a puzzle for the old man. His think tanks are either wandering or busy with their own businesses. Prof. Anyang’ Nyong’o is ailing and busy running Kisumu, James Orengo is Siaya senator and a lawyer at the same time, he suits any case and business must come first.
That’s confusion, one thing that has always affected their preparedness to win previous polls. It’s the last minute and Kalonzo has to be sweet talked to be the running mate. It will still be the case in 2022, accommodating interests of colleagues who will still be having secret meetings with the opponents will be a challenge. He could be big in his orange team but against big boys like Ruto he is a dwarf. I pity my orange brothers, wake up, unrewarding sycophancy should not be a full time job. Jakom could be losing but he looks at his gorgeous paper trail and he is all smiles to the bank. He doesn’t mind another loss in 2022 but will he shake hands with President Ruto in 2023 and make more money?
A strategic Baba would be trying to win DP Ruto back like Uhuru did in 2013 or at least the guys with numbers like Nairobi Governor Mike Mbuvi Sonko. That’s the best he would make of the handshake. Chest thumping and creating an impression that he is pushing the government to deal with Ruto is not really adding any political value but preparing him for retirement in 2022.