Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna has emerged as the preferred presidential candidate among Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) supporters, according to a new survey by TIFA Research ahead of the 2027 General Election.
The poll released on Friday, July 24, shows that 44 per cent of ODM supporters would choose Sifuna as the party’s presidential flag bearer if elections were held today.
President William Ruto ranked second among ODM supporters with 20 per cent support, while former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i received 9 per cent. Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka attracted 4 per cent, while Babu Owino received 2 per cent.
The findings come at a time when ODM continues to experience internal disagreements over its cooperation with President Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza administration and the party’s direction ahead of the 2027 polls.
The survey is also likely to boost Sifuna’s political profile following recent changes within ODM leadership, including the ratification by the Office of the Registrar of Political Parties (ORPP) of his removal as the party’s Secretary General.
Beyond ODM support, TIFA found that Sifuna is among the fastest-rising opposition figures nationally, with the survey showing that he commands 15 per cent support in the overall presidential preference race.
The poll further indicated that 74 per cent of ODM supporters identify with Sifuna’s “Linda Mwananchi” faction, while 20 per cent support the “Linda Ground” camp associated with continued cooperation with the broad-based government arrangement.
TIFA noted that divisions within ODM have intensified following disagreements over the future of the political partnership between the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and ODM.
The pollster added that ODM leadership tensions have continued after calls by Oburu Odinga for members of the “Linda Mwananchi” faction to leave the party, even as Sifuna and other leaders have suggested they could pursue a different political direction.
At the national level, President William Ruto remains ahead in the presidential race with 24 per cent support, followed by Edwin Sifuna at 15 per cent, Fred Matiang’i at 14 per cent, Kalonzo Musyoka at 13 per cent and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua at 7 per cent.
However, TIFA noted that opposition support remains divided among several candidates, a situation that could give President Ruto an advantage as the country approaches the next General Election.
The survey was conducted between June 13 and June 22, 2026, through face-to-face interviews involving 2,048 randomly selected adults across all 47 counties. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.18 percentage points.