Only the coronavirus pandemic has managed to disrupt the all time Kenyan political mood but even in isolation, Kenya’s dirty politics is restless and kicking hard. The dead ‘bromance’ and Jubilee Party and its wars cannot wait for normalcy to return, President Uhuru Kenyatta is kicking out members of the ruling party allied to his Deputy Dr. William Ruto.
This was the biggest amid trips when movements have been restricted as the country grapples to stem the spread of coronavirus that has affected 758 people and claimed 42 lives in Kenya. Economy has been worst hit with some sections of Nairobi and Mombasa under lock down.
But Mzee Francis Atwoli and ODM leader Raila Odinga have been traversing Nairobi and Kajiado boundaries to sketch post covid-19 politics and definitely 2022 politics.
Old boys are not happy with the hustler (DP Ruto) becoming the next president of Kenya, a move they were crafting through BBI rallies that were ‘killed’ by the coronavirus.
Kenyatta’s not so long but decorated political career that includes two terms at the State House would not be so without the help of his deputy, Ruto. He gave him full support from when the president began in 99/99 there about and majorly in his first stab at presidency in 2002 when he lost Mwai Kibaki, his predecessor.
But what is Kenyan politics, especially when you are rocking with a fellow from the mountain? Betrayal is served whether in the menu or not. Politics is a game of deception; old boys like Odinga have tested the betrayal pill before. Kibaki duped him; he rode on Odinga’s back to presidency but never honoured his promise of massage the constitution to create aprime minister position for Odinga.
Later on the former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka would also play a bad boy on Odinga, he took away with the party from Odinga after sensing defeat at the nominations in the run up to the 2007 polls that turned chaotic.
That was that and Odinga may have another taste in the run up to 2022 elections.
Any dynasty calculation that would have Odinga play second fiddle to Senator Gideon Moi will be a betrayal to Odinga and the overexcited ODM followers.
The Odingas are ranked lowest in the dynasty kingdom, from what they have and the positions they have held. Odingas have not produced presidents like Moi and Kenyatta families and their (Odinga’s) attempts at presidency have met the wrath and never a blessing from either Moi or Kenyatta families.
Brilliant schemers rely on history and not ‘handshake excitement’ or infatuation to plan for the future. Unfortunately ODM leader is kept busy by KANU old and COTU Secretary General Francis Atwoli to glue some closeness with KANU but deep down even Atwoli’s body language is clear that Odinga does not deserve backing for top seat.
Either as a Kanu lifetime member, Moi loyalist or as a Luhya elder, Atwoli knows that the late Moi would never back any Odinga presidency. He must be keeping him busy and distracting him from politics of protests and exposing corruption scandals.
KANU has joined the Jubilee led government in a pact whose content is cut and pasted from the ‘handshake’ document.
Senator Samuel Poghisio elected on a Kanu ticket has replaced Jubilee’s Kipchumba Murkoen because is pro DP Ruto and publicly punching holes on the president’s administration. Murkomen’s position would have been handed to Senator Gideon Moi but he is said to be busy designing his path to state house when Uhuru retires in 2022.
Majority Leader job is a demanding job that may not get full attention for a man who wants to be a presidential candidate. This must add to the fact that Ruto is strong both home and away including in some parts of the president’s backyard and politics to break away from the dynasty is also gaining momentum.
The opposition is sycophantic because they feel they have the chance to keep presidency with the dynasties they will remain confused the moment they will be served the pill Ruto is having now and will still have more as the president is expected to kick out Ruto allies in the national assembly.
Atwoli may hold some considerable influence in Luhya’s vote basket and it’s for that reason he grabs Odinga’s attention. He can finance rallies but he got his wealth courtesy of the late Mzee Moi. He must return the favour by ditching Odinga and supporting Gideon Moi in 2022.
Odinga must then be doing the least expected of a self professed opposition leader in Africa, playing Kanu –Jubilee politics when the people can’t even afford face masks amid health risks posed by the covid-19 pandemic. Government is preaching social distancing and going after politicians for skipping a meeting when gatherings have been banned to curb the spread of the coronavirus.
